The hybrid paradigm is the new normal in the world of work

Office workers in the world’s largest economies have not resumed the pattern of transition to work they were in before the pandemic, embracing hybrid work as the new normal, according to mobility data widely tracked by experts.

As of mid-October, commuting to the workplace in the world’s seven largest economies was still well below levels before the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic in early 2020, according to a Financial Times analysis of tracking data on people’s mobile website published by Google.

In Japan, displacement was 7% below pre-pandemic levels, while in the UK the decline was 24%. In major advanced economies, there are more trips to the office on midweek days. Mondays and Fridays show a significant drop in attendance.

Cities with commercial and financial districts have seen a greater decrease in commuting to offices than other large population areas, according to Google figures.

Economists say the shift to remote work is becoming the new normal.

“Working from home will eventually continue,” said Sivat Giray Aksoy, an economist who has researched the trend and works for the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). “Workplace-related mobility levels will remain below pre-pandemic levels.”

This major shift to working from home, Aksoy said, “poses challenges for dense urban centers that are organized to support high passenger arrivals and a high concentration of business activity.”

Aksoy’s research has revealed, in several countries, an increase in the proportion of vacancies that offer the opportunity to work remotely for one or more days per week. Sarah Sutton, founder and CEO of FlexJobs, a professional service that specializes in remote and hybrid jobs, agrees.

“We have certainly seen an inflection point towards a deeper and more permanent integration of telecommuting and hybrid work into organizations,” he said.

Survey data suggests that people enjoy working from home and that the practice helps reduce both expenses and companies’ carbon emissions, although the evidence for the impact on productivity is murky.

The Freespace Index, which tracks office use in large companies around the world, shows occupancy of workstations and meeting rooms at about half of 2019 levels. Data from Kastle, which tracks magnetic badge arrivals at US offices, particularly at large professional services firms which are being outsourced, it was found that occupancy only returned to about half of pre-pandemic levels in mid-October.

A survey by the Munich-based Ifo think tank found that in August, 25% of employees in Germany were still working from home at least part-time.

In the UK, a regular survey by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that as of early October, more than 20% of UK workers were in a hybrid business model, a proportion that has barely changed since the European Spring. The proportion reaches more than half of the workforce in communications and information companies and slightly less than that in professional scientific and technical services and outsourcing.

Google began publishing daily data on commuting patterns in April 2020 as a tool to help governments and authorities track the effects of Covid-19 restrictions on the economy. Initially, the numbers showed an evaporation of presence in the workplace, as people in many countries were forced to stay at home.

Mobility reports have been used by the Bank of England and the European Central Bank (ECB) as a picture of the pandemic’s impact on the economy, as they were available months before official figures.

The data was a “fantastic” indicator of economic activity, according to Bert Cullen, economist at ING. He added that the daily count of trips to the workplace also provided one of the best indicators in the world to show how incomplete the return to the workplace is.

However, going forward, Google will not update the data series as post-pandemic displacement patterns have already been identified.

(Translated by Sabino Ahumada)