a Economist Percio Arida Al-Jumaa (25) denied receiving an invitation to the position of Minister of Planning and undertaking a doubling in the economic field with him Fernando Haddad On the farm –A plan commented on by Labor members🇧🇷
He also said that he does not intend to hold public office again.
“This supposed invitation is just a daydream of some news agencies,” Arida said in an interview. bindingvia phone and text, from the UK, where he is about to give a lecture at Oxford University.
“For personal reasons, at my moment in life, I have no intention of holding positions in BrasĂlia,” he said.
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As I posted it bindingHowever, despite the supporters, Labor members were already skeptical of Persio’s “yes” to the plan and were considering alternative names from the same party for the file order.
a Haddad’s name for Fazenda has gained strength in recent daysand the belief that an arrangement with a petition in planning was in progress which was exaggerated this Friday by Attending the PT at Febraban’s End of Year Lunch (Brazilian Federation of Banks). Haddad went to the event as a representative of President-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (Workers’ Party).
Persio has stayed out of the spotlight. One of the fathers of Plano Real, former president of the Central Bank and member of the editorial board bindingis part of the government’s transition group in the economy, which has the task of producing a diagnosis of the region.
The group meetings, which also includes economists Andre Lara Resende, Nelson Barbosa and Guilherme Melo, Fixed, although most of it actually happens.
With regard to the discussions related to reviewing the 2023 budget, Played in Congress by the political wing of the coalition that elected LulaPersio’s assessment is that next year’s expenditures may be flat with respect to GDP (Gross Domestic Product) projections.
Legislative technique questions – whether PEC is better [proposta de emenda Ă Constituição] Or exceptional credit – beyond my area of ​​expertise. He said: “In terms of value, I think we should have a standard that reconciles social responsibility with fiscal responsibility. “
The amount of expenses that must be kept outside the ceiling to pay for the Bolsa FamĂlia’s R$600 and other PT campaign promises, and how long that will be authorized, is the main difference between the elected government and Congress in the PEC transition.
By current standards, the figure remaining outside the ceiling would tend to be R$135 billion, Bercio says, which is well below R$198 billion estimated by PT negotiators, Which includes in the account additional income for investments.
Nelson Barbosa mentioned a value similar to that of Bercio. on Monday (20), Barbosa stated that Additional spending of R$136 billion in 2023 does not mean fiscal expansion compared to 2022.
The Labor Party’s political wing is trying to get four years’ worth of expenditures outside the ceiling, however Congressmen resist and speak up in two years —which Labor has already recognized as possible.
the master. Do you accept to be a minister of planning? This supposed call is just a pipe dream of some news agency. It was widely circulated and ended up being delusional as if it were true. The truth is that I did not receive any invitation or any ballot for the post of Minister of Planning or Finance🇧🇷 For personal reasons, at the time of my life, I had no intention of taking a position in BrasĂlia.
the master. Do you agree to a PEC of about R$200 billion? Questions of legislative technique—whether PEC or exceptional credit is better—beyond my area of ​​expertise. In terms of value, I think we should have a standard that reconciles social responsibility with financial responsibility.
the master. Do you have a standard suggestion? For 2023, the criterion I propose is to keep public spending constant relative to GDP. The value generated by this criterion depends on the GDP forecast for 2023, which will certainly be affected by the global situation, and also on Possibility to recalculate the GDP From 2021 by IBGE [Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e EstatĂstica]🇧🇷
And by my calculations, it will be much less than R$200 billion.
It is a standard that can be criticized. There will be those who say that public spending should grow more than GDP meet social demands Who enshrined the will of the people in the ballot box. There will be those who say they should grow less to help lower inflation and interest rates. Both objections are valid. But it seems to me to be a good criterion for reconciling social and financial responsibility.
Our demands and shortcomings are enormous and can only be offset by the passage of time. Still in 2023, we must move forward in discussing a new fiscal framework that replaces the current spending cap and is compatible with the sustainability of public debt over time.
the master. Will it have value? If there is no revision of GDP for 2021 and assuming GDP growth of 2.5% next year, we will have approximately R$135 billion. With a more pessimistic estimate of growth, the extract would certainly be less than R$135 billion. It is important to point out that This extraction value is lower than the extraction values ​​for any of the four years of Bolsonaro’s government, Even excluding spending on the Covid-19 pandemic.
The issue of the term extractor is another pitfall🇧🇷 mr. Do you work with a deadline? The mandate for additional spending should be for a period of two years, that is, until the end of 2024. I assume that the discussion of the new fiscal framework could take the whole of 2023 and possibly extend into 2024. If we do indeed have one new fiscal framework in 2024, its duration will be shortened to only one year.
X-RAY – Wide Perseo, 70
Born in SĂŁo Paulo, he holds a degree in Economics from the University of SĂŁo Paulo (University of SĂŁo Paulo) and a PhD in Area from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (USA). He has been a Professor at PUC-RJ and USP, and has worked as a researcher at the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton (USA), at the Center for Brazilian Study at the University of Oxford (UK) and at the Smithsonian Institution, Washington (USA). ). He is one of the fathers of Real Plan. He was the President of BNDES (National Bank for Economic and Social Development) and BC (Central Bank). In the private sector, he was a co-founder of Banco BTG, currently BTG Pactual, where he ceased to own a stake in 2017. In 2018, he was coordinator of the government program for the then Social Democratic presidential candidate, Geraldo Alcmene.
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