The CCJ Senate votes today on a motion that Lula defended

The Senate should move forward with processing the Transitional Interim Election Commission, which was put in place by the elected government in Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (Pacific Time), this week. Senators are analyzing the draft today (6th) in the CCJ (Constitution and Justice Committee) and Labor members are still working to try to increase support for the text in the stands.

The main objective of this constitutional amendment proposal is to release resources to carry out campaign promises, mainly to reshape the Bolsa Família. But, after all, what is this PEC?

It is a change in the constitution that It must be approved by a majority of Congress (Members of Congress and Senators);
The PEC excludes spending on the Bolsa Família The so-called spending ceiling, that is, it is not included in the spending limit in the state budget.

Did you just leave the Bolsa Familia off the roof? The text can be modified until it is approved, but the original proposal, which Lula defended, states that it is also off the roof:

with expenses Social and environmental projects or those related to climate changewithin the scope of the executive power, funded by voluntary contributions
expenses Federal educational institutions It is funded from revenues, donations or agreements with other Federation entities or private entities

If the PEC is approved, when will the change take effect?

The original script states the change from 2023;
But there are negotiations to expect investments beyond the spending limit, should the government record an extraordinary revenue stream already in 2022.

What is the PEC approval pathway?

It must be PEC CCJ approved (Constitution and Justice Committee) of the Senate at least 14 of the 27 members of the Senate for the university.
After this step, the text goes to a file The plenary session of the House of Representatives And it must be analyzed in two rounds – the proposal must be It was passed by 49 of the 81 senators🇧🇷
Once the senators have finished analyzing, the PEC goes into the chamber.
between deputiesThe idea is to unify the text of the Presidential Election Commission on a draft that has already passed through the House Law and Justice Committee and the Special Committee, so that the text goes directly to the plenary session.
Thus, voting will also take place in two rounds, requiring at least 308 votes out of 513 Federal Representatives.

What was negotiated to approve the proposal?

So did Lola verdictTransition members and allies use the PEC as a Thermometer to measure acceptance From the elected president from among the seats.
formation Allied base The Workers’ Party of 2023. Without appointing a minister in the civic house responsible for the political expression of the executive branch, Lula himself and his deputy, Geraldo Alcmene (Socialist Party), entered the negotiations.
There is also the formation of partisan blocs that will form the board of directors of the two chambers and chair important committees in Congress.

How will the Bolsonari rule react to PEC? Allies of President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) are resisting the PEC text, particularly its handling in the Chamber of Deputies. They delay the analysis of the proposal on two fronts:

The head of government in the Senate, Carlos Porteño (PL-RJ), has submitted a request to the CCJ to hold at least one public hearing with economists to discuss The financial impact of the PEC
There is still a possibility Request a 24-hour quote To postpone a vote on the text in the Committee

What are PT accounts? The Labor members’ assessment is that the motion will be approved by the CCJ, but with difficulty.

In PT’s account, the PEC has 16 university votes—two more than the minimum.
In plenary the estimate was 51 votes – also more than the minimum number of votes

Which parties indicated this vote for the Senate Presidential Election Committee?

Labor sought support from centrist parties such as the PSD and MDB. In the Chamber, Lula sought dialogue with the Chair of the Chamber, Arthur Lyra (PP-AL).
But the vote is expected from senators from other parties, such as Podemos and PSDB, because they have a good relationship with the president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), who also expressed approval of the text.