american space agency, NASAReported that global sea levels have risen alarmingly in recent decades. Data indicate that ocean levels rose by 9.4 cm between 1993 and 2023, with an average increase of 0.3 cm per year, while in the past decade this increase amounted to 0.42 cm per year.
Based on data provided by the agency and other climate research, a study conducted by… Central climateA non-profit organization based in the United States has shown that on the current path of greenhouse gas emissions that leads to a 3 degree Celsius rise in global temperature, the lands of about 50 large cities around the world will be exposed to water invasion due to the sea. High level.
Brazil will be one of the affected countries. According to the study, some coastal areas in the southern, southeastern, northern and northeastern regions of the country will be the most affected and will be on alert. Climate Central researchers analyzed where populations would be most vulnerable in the coming years under different warming scenarios, and the results were alarming.
the reasons
Atmospheric pollution and melting glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica have been identified as the main factors contributing to rising ocean levels.s. It is possible that the high tide line will exceed the lands inhabited by about 10% of the world's current population, that is, more than 800 million people in the world, after the temperature rises by 3 degrees Celsius.
In this scenario, many small island states risk losing almost all of their territory. “Current rates of acceleration mean we are on track to add another 20cm to global mean sea level by 2050, (…) increasing the frequency and impacts of floods around the world.”, Nadia Vinogradova Schifferdirector of research at NASA.
Under the 3°C temperature rise scenario, China, India, Vietnam and Indonesia are the four countries most at risk from long-term sea level rise. Also, many islands, such as the Cocos Islands, Maldives, Cayman Islands and Bahamas, will have more than 90% of their population underwater.
Even if carbon emissions were reduced today to the extent suggested by the Paris climate agreement, and temperature increases were kept at 1.5°C, there would still be an average global sea level increase of 2.9 meters per year over several centuries.
Five Brazilian regions could be flooded
Research suggests that many cities on the Brazilian coast may be partially submerged by 2100. They are part of five states, which are:
- Rio de Janeiro: Several coastal cities in the state may be affected. Areas such as Ilha do Governador, Duque de Caxias and Campos Elisius are at risk of flooding. In addition to the capital, other cities will also be affected, such as Campos dos Goytacazis and Cabo Frio.
- Pará: A state located in the north of the country, and it is one of the places that will be most affected by the advance of the sea, according to research. Most parts of Marajó Island are expected to be submerged, in addition to parts of the cities of Belem and Bragança.
- Amapa: By the end of this century, seawater is expected to cover the Lake Piratuba Biological Reserve and Maraca Island, as well as the city of Oyabuki on the border with French Guiana, and some parts of the capital, Macapa (which are submerged by seawater). Amazon River).
- Maranhão: Part of the coast of São Luís and the islands of Santana and Carabatal are expected to be completely submerged in 2100. The famous Lenques Maranhensis National Park is expected to be partially covered by water.
- Rio Grande do Sul: In the south of the country, important cities such as the capital, Porto Alegre, Pelotas and Canoas, could be submerged in the coming decades, as well as the islands of Torotama and Machadiño.
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