Although Democrat Kamala Harris has already emerged as the front-runner in the first poll of voting intentions after Joe Biden withdrew from the re-election race, with 44% of intentions compared to 42% for Republican Donald Trump, that is not enough to guarantee victory in the US presidential election. Since the US electoral system is indirect, meaning that voters vote for delegates who in turn elect the president, Kamala needs to win key states to secure a majority of delegates in the Electoral College. It is worth noting that voting is not compulsory there.
The Electoral College, which consists of 538 delegates, requires a candidate to receive at least 271 votes to be elected president. The distribution of delegates by state is based on the number of senators and representatives each state has in Congress. States with more delegates have more weight in the election, which gives candidates more attention. California, Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Illinois together account for about 30 percent of the votes needed to win the election.
In addition to the complexity of the electoral system, the US presidential election is a lengthy process, beginning nearly two years before the final vote.
Most states use a winner-take-all system when counting votes. For example, if a candidate wins California, they get all of the state's electoral votes, regardless of the margin of victory. Only Maine and Nebraska distribute their votes proportionally.
“Swing states,” or swing states, play a crucial role in U.S. elections. Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and North Carolina can change their electoral profile from election to election, becoming crucial battlegrounds. California and Texas, on the other hand, tend to consistently vote Democratic and Republican, respectively.
The American electoral system can lead to situations where a candidate wins the presidency without receiving a majority of the popular vote. This phenomenon has happened five times in American history, most recently in 2016, when Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton despite receiving about 3 million fewer popular votes.
In addition to the complexity of the electoral system, the US presidential election is a lengthy process, beginning almost two years before the final vote. During this period, candidates form committees, gather support and resources, and participate in primaries and caucuses. In these preliminary stages, voters choose the candidates who will represent their parties in the general election. It is worth noting that, unlike in Brazil, candidates can obtain resources from a variety of sources and there is no spending limit.
Primaries can be open or closed depending on the state. In open primaries, any voter can vote, while in closed primaries, only registered party members can participate. The process culminates in the national conventions, where the parties formally present their nominations for president and vice president.
Official party nominations are made at national conventions. After the conventions, candidate debates begin and continue until the election in November. The elections are presided over byThe 2024 United States presidential election will mark the 60th time the country has chosen its leader since the adoption of the Constitution in 1788. The new president is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025.
Arilton Freres He is a sociologist and director of the Institute of Opinion, based in Curitiba.
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