42% of those who consider themselves party-free will vote for Kamala. Meanwhile, 37% of the same group prefer Trump, 11% would vote for another candidate and 10% don’t know or have no opinion.
Vote change since the last election is low. Of those who voted for Joe Biden in 2020, 4% decided to vote for Trump in this election. Of those who voted Republican in 2020, 5% said they switched to Kamala.
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The candidates are “essentially tied”; Trump and Kamala have 50% of voting intentions. That figure represents an increase from the last poll, in which Kamala gave 48.7 percent of the vote, compared to 51.3 percent for Trump. Researchers interviewed 1,000 voters between July 30 and Aug. 6. The margin of error is 3.1 percentage points.
Women prefer Kamala, while men prefer Trump. According to Activote, 57% of those interviewed would vote for Kamala, while 43% would prefer a Republican. As for male voters, the opposite is true: 58% want Trump as president, while 42% want Kamala Harris.
61% of rural voters will vote for Trump. Kamala Harris has greater strength in urban areas: 60% of big city residents would vote for her, compared to 40% who would vote for Trump.
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