Starts on Super Tuesday, which brings together primaries in up to 16 states and should pair Biden and Trump as 'favorites'

Joe Biden and Donald Trump – Image: Getty Images/BBC

Historically, The day is usually crucial Both for the Republican and Democratic parties, but mainly for the opposing party – this time the Republicans.

But, unlike other hotly contested Super Tuesdays, both sides' nominations are practically set this year. Despite controversies such as the issue of age and memory, on the part of Joe Biden, and the lawsuits that Republican Donald Trump faces in court, both emerge as absolute favorites in their parties. Trump assumed the presidency of the United States between 2017 and 2020. This Monday, he was acquitted by the Supreme Court of Competition.

In the United States, front-runners from each party compete in each state and territory of the country, to elect a certain number of delegates (representatives) in each. Whoever has the most delegates at the end of the process becomes the party's nominee for president. The largest electoral colleges are in California and Texas.

This year, 15 states and one U.S. territory will vote on Super Tuesday for the Republican Party; By Democrats, there will be 16 territories, including the territory of American Samoa. The first results are due to be known between 8pm and 11pm on Tuesday – definitions will be announced in the early hours of Wednesday (6).

The “super” date is due to the large number of delegates participating on the same day. A Republican candidate, for example, needs 1,215 delegates to run for president. On Republican Super Tuesday alone, there are 854 delegates at stake.

Despite favoritism, based on the number of delegates, neither Trump nor Biden will win the nomination on Super Tuesday. By calculations, the advance nominees can only be confirmed from mid-March: Trump on March 12; Biden on March 19.

Super Tuesday was indeed crucial

Vote the Super Tuesday was already crucial, for example, for the former president Barack Obama In the dispute with Hillary Clinton in 2008 and for Donald Trump In the 2016 electoral race. The two ended up winning the elections in those years. It was also fierce in 2012 among Republicans, and in 2020 among Democrats.

Elections in the USA: What is Super Tuesday and why is it important?

But this year, anyway, The superlatives should end up being reduced under a predictable scenario for both Trump and Biden, in the assessment of the experts interviewed by the newspaper. g1.

So, This year's Super Tuesday will be the least important in the past two decadesin the assessment of political analyst Sam Logan, founder of the consulting firm Southern Pulse in Washington.

“In years like 2016, when Trump entered the race definitively, the importance of Super Tuesday was much greater than this time,” Logan said. g1. “But primaries in general have lost their importance, except for these specific events.”

A man walks to a polling station in the US state of Michigan's primary election, in February 2024. – Photograph: Paul Sancia/Associated Press

On the Democratic side, Biden faces other candidates, but he appears as the most likely candidate.

On the Republican side, Donald Trump faces only one competitor, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, and so far, he is winning a large majority of delegates. He has beaten Healey in every Republican primary to date: Nevada, the Virgin Islands, Michigan (where there are primaries), Idaho, Missouri, Iowa, New Hampshire, and the latter's political birthplace, South Carolina.

Nikki Haley could heat up the vote — or drop out

Nikki Haley speaks during the Republican primaries in South Carolina – Photograph: Reuters

However, the experts' assessment is that the biggest chance to “heat up” Super Tuesday and regain the top spot this year lies in Nikki Haley's performance.

This is because The only challenger to Donald Trump matches the profile of Republican voters in most states Who will vote on time? More moderate, with a university education and more resistant to Trump's extremist proposals, the latter more aligned with the far right.

This is the case with the voter files in Massachusetts and Virginia, the big bets for Nikki Haley.

This is one factor explaining why donors to Haley's campaign continue to allocate money to her candidacy – in the United States, there are no public funds for election campaigns, which must be funded entirely by donations.

The political analyst added: “If she wins a state or two, she will likely remain in the race for a few more weeks, and therefore, Trump will not be able to unite the Republican Party, even if Haley cannot defeat him.” This was stated by James Bosworth from the American political risk consulting company Hxagon.

According to Bosworth, opinion polls among Republicans in states that have already held electoral conventions have shown an increasing rate of rejection of Donald Trump. ““If these polls show the same thing on Super Tuesday, it will spell big trouble for the Trump campaign.”He mentioned.

This does not mean that Haley's task is simple: despite the rejection, Trump remains the most likely candidate in the vast majority of states, according to opinion polls. Among them are California and Texas, which are the most important on Super Tuesday.

His campaign projects that he will win at least 773 delegates on that date, so he will be guaranteed that His nomination as the Republican candidate after a week or two, depending on the number of votes.

If this prediction is confirmed, Haley is expected to announce her withdrawal from the electoral race.