Why did the Conservative Party do so badly in the UK election?

Manchester has become accustomed to being the Manchester of Conservative Party politics.

A blue and winning machine few of its core members could remember anything else.

But his run – which delivered Conservative prime ministers in four consecutive elections – came to a dramatic end.

Many conservatives are almost speechless and still processing the situation.

One of them told me that they were not in tune with the electorate.

Now the conservatives are beginning to figure out what went wrong with their tactics and leadership and what they will do next.

When I talk to conservatives, several themes keep recurring.

Some feel that Labour's policy proposition is not entirely different from that of its opponents, but that the choice of the British electorate is based on the concept of “competence”.

Seismic events from Brexit to Covid and several leadership conflicts have divided the party along ideological lines. Some Tories spent more energy trying to put each other down than their opponents did – and not really get things right at all.

Scandals have rocked the track, from partying during pandemic lockdowns to sexual misconduct allegations and a budget that contributed to rising interest rates.

When I asked former party boss Mark Spencer if the party had had any behavioral problems during the campaign, he noted that other parties had also had to suspend MPs for bad behavior – which is true – but admitted it happened too often.

And then there was the unmistakable desire for change – a word the Labor Party used in its campaign.

The cost of living, NHS waiting lists and small boats carrying migrants were among the issues raised by voters – and they felt things were getting worse rather than better.

With Nigel Farage's late entry into the election, this last issue became a particular problem for the Conservatives, with some right-wing voters turning to a reformed UK in search of tougher immigration policies and higher taxes.

Their rhetoric and policies to win over former voters caused some more centrist conservatives to leave the party for Labor or the Liberal Democrats.

It was a comfortable transition for some centrists who did not think they could vote Labor under Keir Starmer's predecessor, Jeremy Corbyn.

Does this mean failure is inevitable in this situation? Most Tories I spoke to described the result as “unexpected”, but some thought the scale of the defeat could have been smaller.

There are avoidable gaffes like Rishi Sunak leaving the D-Day celebrations early.

While Boris Johnson has also been prone to gaffes, some of his fans felt he did not reciprocate his appeal to Sunak voters in the same way. The former prime minister is still 'Boris! Boris!' A last-minute rally to cheer the campaign.

Some are confused as to why Sunak decided to hold elections in July.

His campaign guru, Isaac Levitow, argued for a later date – hoping that by then there would be more “measurable” results to demonstrate that his policies are having a positive impact.

Flight of asylum seekers to Rwanda or reduction of interest rates.

But he lost that argument. And when the Conservatives are talking to voters there is little evidence that some of their policies are working.

The risk of delaying the decision to call an election is that more bad news could emerge for the Tories – more Channel crossings this summer, more convicts being released due to prison overcrowding or some universities going bankrupt.

But in terms of politics and identity, what more could conservatives have done? That will be their focus now.

What – who – could come next?

Sunak has confirmed that he will step down as leader of the Conservative Party.

For example, there have been rumors in recent weeks that the interim leader would be appointed to avoid the embarrassment of the former prime minister having to sit in on Prime Minister's Questions – a session of Parliament where the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition each debate. Wednesday – Fair.

Could it be someone who has previously served in the Cabinet – the likes of Oliver Dowden, James Wise or Jeremy Hunt, almost returned to the House of Commons (the Brazilian equivalent of the Chamber of Deputies)?

If so, it should be someone who doesn't want to run for leadership in the future.

Otherwise, Chung could stay in office until the next Conservative leadership contest.

Some MPs have been working behind the scenes for a long time to rally their support, including Chemi Patenoch (a race favorite), who is on the right of the party, and Tom Tugenthat, who leans more towards the centre.

Former candidates Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick, a former Sunak ally turned critic, are also expected to run.

Both have spent time at the Home Office, are on the right of the party and have been critical of the government's record on immigration.

However, it is interesting to see who the remaining Conservative MPs are and who they are supporting within the parliamentary party.

Here's a brief look at the new intake of Conservative MPs in the July-September 2022 Conservative leadership race and who they've backed.

Interestingly, the majority are Sunak supporters, with a large section of Lis Trus supporters.

Suella Braverman and Kemi Badenoch have lost some of their key allies on the right of the parliamentary party. Some of Tugendhat's followers also left.

Why are residual rep trends important? Right, because it will determine how the Conservative Party shapes itself in the future.

Will Ms Badenoch decide to choose someone from the right of the party, such as Ms Braverman or Jenrick, to try to avoid the growing influence of Reform UK, which has already won many seats?

Some party members argue that being tough on issues like immigration is part of its downfall.

Or are you trying to get back to the center with a candidate like Tugenthat or Hunt to reclaim the place Labor is now trying to occupy on the political spectrum?

Some party members argue that the Conservatives' rightward drift was part of the problem and alienated socially liberal but fiscally conservative voters.

The answer will come in the coming weeks as a result of many fights and trials of conscience.