Why do Venezuelans immigrate to the US en masse via Mexico

That month, the US Border Patrol arrested 25,349 Venezuelan nationals, four times the number in August 2021 (6,301).

The number of Brazilians trying to cross the Mexican border with the United States has decreased in the same period – there were 5,750 arrests compared to 9,100 the year before. In December last year, under pressure from the US government, Mexico began imposing tourist visas on Brazilians.

In September, according to the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the number of Venezuelans detained at the southern border increased even more: 33,000.

But perhaps the most visible data for how things have changed in the past two years are the following: Between fiscal years 2014 and 2019, the average monthly detention for Venezuelans was 127.

In total, between fiscal year 2021 and fiscal year 2022 (which ended on September 30), detentions of Venezuelans at the border increased by 293%, according to the Department of Homeland Security.

Faced with this situation, the government of US President Joe Biden announced on Wednesday (10/12) a new policy that all Venezuelans who enter the United States without permission through the border into Mexico, but at the same time, will be expelled. It will grant humanitarian permission to about 24,000 of them, meeting a series of requirements.

But why do so many Venezuelans enter the United States through the southern border?

Historically, Venezuelans have not had a tradition of immigration.

In the twentieth century, Venezuela served for decades as a place of reception for people coming, above all, from other countries in Latin America and southern Europe.

The deep crisis that Venezuela has experienced over the past seven years has completely changed this dynamic and the country has become a major source of immigrants.

About 7.1 million Venezuelans (about 20% of the population) currently live as migrants or refugees in various parts of the world, according to United Nations data released in September 2022.

According to Juan Navarrete, Amnesty International’s Deputy Director of the Refugee Crisis in Venezuela based in Bogota (Colombia), this figure shows that the Venezuelan migration crisis has not shown any signs of abating – in August, the number of refugees was 6.8 million.

“The flow of people from Venezuela continues, although perhaps not at the same rate as in 2015-2017,” Navarrete told BBC News Mundo, the BBC’s Spanish-language news service.

Julia Gillat, a senior analyst at the Migration Policy Institute, a Washington (US)-based think tank, believes that a combination of difficult economic and political conditions is forcing Venezuelans to leave the country.

In his opinion, some people who decided to stay in Venezuela until now were waiting for the fall of the government of Nicolás Maduro, and since that did not happen, they now believe that it is time to leave.

Venezuela emerged from a prolonged period of hyperinflation in December 2021, but it remains one of the countries with the highest inflation in the world.

In the past two months, the Venezuelan currency has depreciated by about 30% against the dollar, whose official rate fell from 6.28 bolivars to the dollar in August to 8.26 bolivars to the dollar this week, leaving the minimum monthly wage for Venezuelans around the United States. $16 or R$85 – In Brazil, for comparison purposes, the minimum wage is R$1,212.

Since the beginning of the migration crisis, the majority of Venezuelans who decided to leave the country have emigrated to other countries in Latin America and the Caribbean: about 5.96 million.

It is estimated that there are approximately 2.5 million Venezuelans in Colombia, 1.5 million in Peru, 500,000 in Ecuador, and 450,000 in Chile. In Brazil, there are about 260,000, according to United Nations data.

However, Navarrete explains that conditions for Venezuelans to enter and stay in the region have become more difficult in recent years.

This led to a change in the direction of migration. So now, instead of looking for ways south, Venezuelans looking for a better life abroad are looking north.

In the north there is the Strait of Daren [uma selva muito perigosa que os migrantes que vão da Colômbia ao Panamá devem atravessar]In the south, since the coronavirus pandemic, countries in the region have begun to demand entry visas and other hard-to-obtain documents from Venezuelans.”

The expert notes that these difficulties are added to some xenophobic episodes that have occurred in some countries such as Chile and Peru, which immigrants also take into account when considering possible destinations.

Added to all this is the fact that since the coronavirus pandemic, the economic situation in Latin American countries has deteriorated both for the local population and for immigrants, who are left in an even more dangerous situation.

“I think the change that has happened recently is that economic conditions in other countries have pushed Venezuelans to come to the United States,” says Julia Gillat.

Navarrete explains that, given deteriorating economic conditions and increasing difficulties in going to other Latin American countries, the United States may seem a more attractive place in the minds of Venezuelan immigrants.

“A Venezuelan immigrant who lives begging for money on the streets of Colombia might think that he can get a lot more money in the United States, where livelihoods are better. So, in their imagination, they would rather go north than east, without thinking the dangers of the northern route,” he said. Much larger “.

Added to this is the fact that the United States has a charitable policy towards Venezuelan immigrants, whom the authorities in that country consider victims of the Maduro government, which both Biden and his Republican predecessor Donald Trump have called a “dictator”.

In a press release issued by US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) in September, it was noted that “the large number of people fleeing failed communist regimes in Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba is contributing to more migrants trying to cross the borders.”

Around those same days, after questioning by the press, President Biden himself said it was not “rational” to send immigrants back to these three countries.

So far, in practice, this situation has meant that for months, when Venezuelans crossed the border into the United States from Mexico, they “surrendered” to the border patrol, because they thought they would not be deported, but would simply be detained by a few days and then released. Waiting for their asylum application to be processed before an immigration judge.

This was fundamentally different from the treatment accorded to immigrants from many other countries who were either expelled from the United States to Mexico or deported to their countries of origin.

“Some immigrants have felt that so far the US has been letting Venezuelans in and not expelling them based on Address 42 (a rule under Trump that allows them to return to Mexico on the pretext of the coronavirus pandemic), unlike what happens to immigrants from other countries. I think this information has spread. between immigrant networks,” says Gilat.

Navarrete refers to this phenomenon as “migration intelligence”: the exchange of information between immigrants that, he explains, in the case of Venezuelans, often occurs through social networks such as TikTok and Facebook.

According to the expert, the combination of all these elements made the idea of ​​immigration to the United States attractive in the minds of Venezuelan immigrants.

But can we expect any changes after the Biden administration announced that it will expel Venezuelans trying to enter the southern border without a visa to Mexico?

Navarrete believes that this will depend in part on what happens to this information and how it is handled in immigrant networks, and notes that many of those who immigrate are young people, from the lower classes, who do not know the legal rules. on immigration.

He adds that migrant smuggling groups have found employment in Venezuelans.

Julia Gillat, in turn, believes that it is possible that although some decide to stay in Venezuela or go to other countries, there are those who insist on going to the United States.

“If people are fleeing hunger, poverty, and political repression in Venezuela, they are very likely to make the trip anyway and can try to cross the border, even if they are no longer looking for border guards to get them. Let them enter and stay. People may still be They try to get in but secretly,” he says.

He concludes, “When conditions are very difficult, there will be people who will have to immigrate to survive and may continue to try to come to the United States.”