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Scientists associated with the British government warn that 2,000 to 7,000 people a day will be hospitalized in October if restrictions are not tightened
Scientists associated with the UK government warn that a huge increase in the number of Govt hospital admissions in the UK could occur if the restrictions are not tightened.
Based on mathematical models, the Sage Group announced that hospital admissions for this disease will vary from 2,000 to 7,000 a day next month – currently, there are more than 750.
But they added that “relatively low levels of activity” could lead to infections.
After a significant decline due to mass vaccination, cowpea deaths in the UK are on the rise again, although they are still low compared to the height of the epidemic.
Nevertheless, the number of confirmed deaths per million people (2.07) per day is already the same as in Brazil (2.17).
Other countries with widespread vaccinations, such as Israel and the United States, have also seen an increase in their Govt numbers in recent weeks.
The United States, for example, tops the world rankings in the number of confirmed cases per million people per day. There, the rate is 5.54, which is twice as much as in Brazil.
The first data came from the University of Oxford (United Kingdom) on September 13 last year.
Recently, the United Kingdom relaxed measures to control the epidemic, namely banning accumulations and wearing masks.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he hoped an increase in the vaccine could prevent new regulations from being implemented.
Announcing his winter plan to tackle Govt in the UK on Tuesday (9/14), the Prime Minister said some action could be taken as part of the government’s plan if the UK Public Health Service, NHS (British SUS) faces prolonged pressure. .
It includes a passport for vaccinations, mandatory masks and recommendations for working from home.
The information released by the Scientific Advisory Committee (Sage) on Emergency on Tuesday, dated September 8, indicates the possibility of “another big wave in the hospital”.
Scientists responsible for the mathematical modeling of viral infections advising the team — the Scientific Panel on Infectious Diseases (SPI-M) – said it was likely to spread quickly after returning from school and that more people would return to their places. Workplaces
High levels of telecommunications “have played a very important role in preventing the sustained development of the epidemic in recent months,” they noted.
“A significant reduction in homework in the coming months will lead to a rapid increase in hospital admissions.”
However, scientists said that even “relatively mild measures” could control the increase in cases if adequately implemented early enough.
“In addition to promoting remote work, people are advised to exercise caution in light activities, to be constantly tested, and to isolate themselves if they are wearing a mask in contact with the virus.”
They said that if the government allowed the epidemic to continue until it was admitted to the hospital, “more drastic (and therefore more destructive) measures would be needed to reduce the spread quickly.”
However, the company acknowledged that its earlier warning that removing all restrictions in the summer could lead to a full-scale explosion had not been confirmed.
In an interview with the media on Tuesday (9/14), Johnson said the vaccine program would allow the UK to remain “one of the most independent communities” in Europe, with only limited restrictions on the control of the disease.
“Because the vast majority of the population is somewhat immune, small changes in the way we treat people will have a greater impact.”
He called on the 5 million people who have not been vaccinated to finally get vaccinated to avoid severe restrictions in the winter.
At the same press conference, Patrick Valence, the government’s top science adviser, said the country was “at a turning point” and that ministers should respond quickly if cases increase.
“We can’t wait until it’s too late,” he said.
Chris Witty, head of medical services in the UK, warned that flu and other respiratory germs would be “highly desirable” in the winter.
He stressed that the country is entering autumn.
On Tuesday, an additional 26,628 cases and 185 deaths were reported in the UK in the 28 days since Kovit made a positive diagnosis. The most recent data show that 8,413 patients have been hospitalized with the disease.
As of September 15 last year, the number was very low: 3,105 cases per day and 27 deaths – admission by Govt, for a total of 1,066.
However, vaccines now offer comprehensive protection against serious diseases. About 81.2% of people aged 16 and over in the UK have received both doses of the vaccine.
UK Health Minister Sajid Javed confirmed on Tuesday that everyone in the UK over the age of 50 – and those in other vulnerable groups – would receive the booster dose.
To maximize the effectiveness of the vaccine, these people will receive the Pfizer or modern vaccine at least six months after the second dose.
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“We can’t wait until it’s too late,” said a senior British government adviser
Hugh Pim, BBC Health Editor Analysis
The scientists responsible for the mathematical modeling of the virus infection report to the Sage team were very optimistic in July, believing that opening up the community would increase the incidence of infections and hospital admissions.
A collection of recent documents shows that school closures, warmer climates and the isolation of large numbers of people play a bigger role than expected in infection control.
But they continue to say that the previously expected peak in the August cases has now been pushed to the October-December period.
Withdrawal of schools and colleges could raise lawsuits. Another big wave of hospital admissions is approaching, they say.
In this sense, they support early intervention, for example, as more people want to work back home.
This may prompt the government to pursue its Plan B for the UK.
Scientists will say that scientists have made mistakes before and that some doubts are needed. But some are denying the opportunity for a more harsh winter.
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